07 januar, 2007

Somalia balancerer på en knivsæg

I Somalia balancerer freden efter islamisternes kollaps på en knivsæg:

The prime minister of the transitional government, Mohamed Gedi, now wants to capture or kill the fleeing hardliners “at any cost”. Although the Islamist collapse was quicker than expected, the danger is that this convincing conventional victory for the Ethiopians may be followed by an Islamist insurgency, drawing in support from militant Muslims around the world. Indeed, it would be hard to find a better recruiting poster for would-be jihadists than the Russian-built tanks of “Christian” Ethiopia bogged down in a Muslim tropical paradise. In a Taliban-like phone call from the bush, an Islamist commander promised that the movement would “rise from the ashes”.

It may well. Already there have been several unexplained bomb blasts in Mogadishu, one of them directed at a hotel where Ethiopian army officers are billeted. Two Ethiopian soldiers were shot dead on January 2nd, probably by Islamists. There is a real possibility that what army types call “asymmetrical warfare” will include suicide-bombings, in Kenya as well as in Somalia and Ethiopia. One aim would be to stir up hatred between Christians and Muslims in the region. Among the key commanders now on the run is Aden Hashi Farah Ayro. His network has grown in the last months to perhaps 200 fighters. Mr Ayro is young, around 30, and is thought to have trained in al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan. He is wanted for his suspected involvement in the killings of several foreigners in Somalia and Somaliland. He is one of those in charge of the sleeper-cells that are likely to have stayed in Mogadishu and elsewhere, waiting to strike.

Allerede for tre dage siden kunne pressen fortælle, at 3.500 islamistiske militsmænd gemte sig i Mogadishu. Officielt var det "civile", der demonstrerede mod at skulle aflevere deres våben i Mogadishu i går, men man kan tvivle.

UPDATE:

Mens jeg skrev indlægget dukkede en ny nyhed op: Kampene blussede søndag atter op i Mogadishu:

Der udbrød søndag voldsomme kampe i Somalias hovedstad, Mogadishu, efter at militsfolk angreb en lejr, der huser soldater fra nabolandet Etiopien. De nye kampe kommer blot timer efter at den somaliske regering meddelte, at den havde fået fuld kontrol over områder i det sydlige Somalia, hvor islamister havde forskanset sig efter at være blevet drevet ud af hovedstaden.

- Omkring klokken otte i aftes hørte vi en voldsom eksplosion efter at uidentificerede militsfolk angreb en lejr, hvor de somaliske og etiopiske styrker er stationeret. Og minutter senere intensivt skyderi, der varede i omkring ti minutter, siger Abdul Aziz Mohamed Gure, en indbygger i Mogadishu.

Angrebene kom timer efter at den somaliske regeringshær fastslog, at den endegyldigt havde nedkæmpet islamisterne.

- De har fuldført kampen mod islamisterne, og der er ingen magt tilbage hos de islamistiske terrorister, konstaterede kommandant Abdulrasaq Afgebub.

UPDATE II

DR´s text-tv siger stadig, der udbrød "voldsomme kampe" i Mogadishu, men der må have været grænser for, hvor voldsomme de var:

Small skirmish has broken out in the Somalia capital Mogadishu tonight between Somali militiamen and the Ethiopian forces killing at least one person and wounding two others.

The clashes came after armed militiamen attacked on military vehicles belonged to Ethiopian troops passing in front of the Sahafi hotel in southern of Mogadishu.

Both the dead and the injured were Somalis. The dead person was 13-year-old girl while one of the wounded was an old man who was in serious condition.

Witnesses told Somalinet that they heard huge explosion around 8:00 pm local time when the gunmen fired Rocket Propelled Grenade at the convoys of the Ethiopians but missed its target.

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